Hi! I'm Mustehsan.

Navigating the intricate world of econometrics and operations research while diving into the competitive field of business, I balance quantitative analytics with an entrepreneurial vision.

From mastering complex mathematical models that guide strategic decision-making to founding my own companies. I am committed to turning data-driven insights into actionable results. Find out more here

Recent Writing

A Multi-Objective Network Optimization Problem

Abstract

This blog post addresses the design of a sustainable logistic network for GreenForwarder—a multinational freight company—by balancing profitability, environmental emissions, and regional reach. A multi-objective network optimization problem is formulated over a graph that represents cities and potential transport connections. Using a modified Minimum Spanning Tree (MST) algorithm that incorporates capacity constraints and investment costs, the approach has been inspired by the Steiner Tree Problem and evaluates candidate edges dynamically by considering cost, emission factors, and a bonus for expanding regional reach. POC and LIVE differ significantly in their approaches, particularly in their starting points. POC begins by simplifying the “full” graph and focusing on optimizing its objective function, whereas LIVE prioritizes satisfying its unique constraint from the outset. For the MVP, two methods are employed to determine which approach would yield a better outcome, as the significance of profit’s contribution was unknown during the project’s initial stages. Detailed experimental results, analysis, and comparisons are provided in later sections.

Tags: #Operations Research

Forecasting Commodity Prices: A Comparative Analysis of Common and Mixed Frequency Approaches

Abstract

In this blog post, I rigorously analyze the forecasting performance of commodity price inflation models. I compare a conventional univariate autoregressive (AR) model with two mixed frequency models—the unrestricted MiDAS model and the HAR-MiDAS model. By integrating daily stock returns with monthly inflation data, I aim to capture market dynamics that standard techniques overlook. I evaluate model performance using robust statistical tests, RMSE comparisons, and the Diebold-Mariano test, and I explore the benefits of a rolling forecast origin. Throughout the analysis, I include detailed mathematical formulations, estimation results, tables, and graphical visualizations.

Tags: #Econometrics

Shipping Optimization Using Genetic Algorithms: A Heuristic Approach for Vessel Scheduling

Abstract

In this blog post, I tackle the complex problem of shipping optimization for SABIC by developing and implementing a genetic algorithm (GA). The primary aim is to minimize operational costs by optimally scheduling vessel routes while considering constraints such as vessel capacity, draft limitations, fuel consumption, and cargo compatibility. I outline the complete mathematical formulation of the cost function, detail the GA’s operators (selection, crossover, mutation), and present comprehensive results—including cost savings, vessel utilization improvements, and on-time delivery rates. This work is supported by extensive numerical results and detailed cost tables.

Tags: #Operations Research

Portugal: A Macroeconomic Risk Analysis

Abstract

This blog post presents an innovative and comprehensive analysis of Portugal’s macroeconomic performance over the period 1970–2005. By integrating classical economic theory with advanced econometric modeling—including Vector Autoregression (VAR) and ARIMA approaches—we examine the intricate interplay between GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation. Our study revisits the traditional Phillips Curve framework and proposes an accelerated variant to better capture the nuances of Portuguese economic dynamics. The analysis not only identifies key recession periods but also offers robust policy implications for economic stabilization and investment strategy formulation.

Tags: #Econometrics #Macroeconomics #Policy Analysis #Advanced Econometric Models

Queuing Theory and Markov Chains in Airplane Boarding: An Econometric Approach

Introduction

The idea for this blog originated on an 1 hour long boarding process on my last trip. The process of boarding an airplane appears deceptively simple; yet, it exhibits surprisingly high delays compared to boarding other forms of transportation such as buses or trains. This document aims to provide a mathematically rigorous explanation of why the boarding process is so inefficient. We build a model that captures both stochastic delays (due to bag stowing, seating interference, etc.) and systematic constraints imposed by the boarding procedure.

Tags: #Operations Research
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What I'm currently working on

Econometrics and Operations Research Quantitative study of economics and business. Arming me with the tools to solve complex problems in a data-driven way. Role: Student ShilajitEssence Wellness provisions done right. Delving into the world of e-commerce and marketing whilst solving real-life problems. Role: Founder & CEO