#Advanced Econometric Models

Abstract

This blog post presents an innovative and comprehensive analysis of Portugal’s macroeconomic performance over the period 1970–2005. By integrating classical economic theory with advanced econometric modeling—including Vector Autoregression (VAR) and ARIMA approaches—we examine the intricate interplay between GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation. Our study revisits the traditional Phillips Curve framework and proposes an accelerated variant to better capture the nuances of Portuguese economic dynamics. The analysis not only identifies key recession periods but also offers robust policy implications for economic stabilization and investment strategy formulation.